NBA WEEK 7
Another winning NBA week, going 8-4 on picks ATS bringing me to 46-26-1 64% with 22.32% ROI on the year! Let’s keep this rolling. Follow all my picks on the Action Network app https://myaction.app/4thandjord or check my twitter @smithtikal I routinely tweet them out. Concussion is still lingering unfortunately so I won’t be doing full write-ups yet but will add some brief notes below.
Power Ratings
1. Phoenix +8
2. Golden State +7.5
3. Utah +7
4. Brooklyn +6.5
5. Milwaukee +6
6. Miami +4.5
7. Philly +4
8. Atlanta +3.5
9. Chicago +3
10. Dallas +3
11. LAC +2.5
12. Denver +2.25
13. Charlotte +2.25
14. Lakers +2
15. Memphis +2
16. Boston +1.75
17. Cleveland +1.5
18. Washington +1.5
19. NY +1.25
20. Portland +1.25
21. Minnesota +1
22. Indiana +1
23. Toronto +0.5
24. SAC -2.5
25. San Antonio -3
26. New Orleans -4
27. OKC -4
28. Orlando -5
29. Detroit -5.5
30. Houston -6.5
Suns vs Warriors
The Suns and Warriors are clearly the two best teams in the league right now. That game last night was a treat to watch. Great team basketball on both ends of the floor. Both teams play so well together. They move the ball and move without the ball better than any other teams. Defensively, the attention to detail and compete level are top notch. For Phoenix, Mikal Bridges was 1-4 with 2 points in the game but was so impactful defensively he played 41 minutes and completely changed the game. You have to give it up to Chris Paul. He controlled that game and willed his team to the win after Booker went down. An interesting stat; Chris Paul is the only player in NBA history with 16 straight wins for 3 different franchises. His compete level day-in and day-out is up there with the best of all time. I make Phoenix a half point better than GS in my power ratings but depending on the Booker hamstring injury that will likely come down. Also, Warriors and Suns have a rematch on Friday night in Golden State. I would be suprised to see Curry struggle shooting it again like he did last night. It is also a tough back-to-back spot for Phoenix who plays in Detroit Thursday night. I have GS circled as a bet on spot here, but likely the market will agree and the line could inflate. Stay Tuned.
The Middle of the Eastern Conference
If you can successfully handicap the middle of the Eastern Conference this year I think you have an opportunity to make a fair bit of money. From Atlanta down to Toronto there are 9 Eastern Conference teams in my power ratings separated by 3 points. I started adding quarter (.25) points to these ratings to help distinguish these teams because it really is close. Some would include Philly in this middle group but for me I think with Embid back they will start to separate themselves from this pack. The Bam injury with Miami could even bring them into this middle group conversation. For now I will keep Miami in the top 3 of the East. No matter how you look at it there is 9-11 teams very tightly grouped battling it out for those playoff and play-in spots and if you can get a good feel for this group of teams their is opportunity to make some money.
My Wednesday Night Picks
Philly +3 @ Boston - I faded Philly against Minnesota in Embid’s return game. The line moved up 2.5 points when he was announced and I went the other way with it. With a player like Embid, he impacts the game so much for all his teammates I think there is an adjustment period for the team and the player to get right and find a rhythm together if they come back after an extended period of time. This was evident in the Minnesota game and even the next game against Orlando where they won but did not cover. I am betting on his 3rd game back they start to figure it out and find that rhythm. The line at +3 makes Boston and Philly even teams or Boston slightly better. I don’t see it that way, like Philly +3 and ML.
OKC -2.5 vs Houston - Back-to-back home and home set for OKC and Houston. The Rockets do seem to be better with Jalen Green out of the lineup winning 3 in a row and I would agree with that. With him in the lineup they are running much of the offense through him to get him reps and develop their young potential star. By doing this they are taking touches away from veteran pros like Eric Gordon. Now the market must agree with this premise and in my opinion are overreacting to it. The line on Monday @ Houston closed OKC -2.5. Now in OKC the line is the same -2.5. Home court is not worth what it once was but it is definitely still a factor. I also always lean to the team that lost the first matchup in these back-to-back games especially in a home-and-home.
Magic +8 vs Denver - This would be a lean most of the time for me but given my hot streak I am trying to play more games. I like to fade a team after a big win. Denver kicked Miami’s ass on Monday in Miami in a big time road win. This is a classic let down spot for Denver against Orlando, not to mention maybe some fun was had in Miami after that win? Power Ratings also makes this game more like Orlando +6.