NBA Season Preview Betting Guide
2021-22 NBA Season is about to start! I feel like the last season just ended, but either way, I am stoked! This season should be a fun one and a return to some normalcy from a covid perspective. Fans in the stands, players out and about on the road, and a normal 82 game season from October to June. I was hoping to get this preview out last week and had a fair bit to write about, but due to some post-concussion symptoms, I haven’t been able to write like normal. So, I apologize if this comes off a bit rushed and brief. I am going to do an NBA post every Tuesday/Wednesday with some picks for the Wednesday/Thursday slate. For other picks throughout the week follow my twitter @smithtikal or on the Action Network app at 4thandJord.
Some quick points before I get into handicaps.
I think the Eastern Conference is collectively better than the West. I can’t remember the last time I felt this way.
With covid restrictions lifted, home court advantage is back to being a real thing in the NBA - there will be, as Jalen Rose calls it, some “Champagne and Campaigning” going on and scheduling spots really become more of a factor.
I am so over the Kyrie and Simmons drama, looking forward to having some actual basketball to talk about
Over/Under Team Wins
My Picks last year went 3-2:
· Denver Over $
· Utah Over $
· Miami Over X
· Philly Over $
· Chicago Under X
2021-22 Picks
Utah Over 52
Very high on Utah again this year, at least in the regular season. Everyone’s last memory of Utah is a massive collapse in the playoffs against a Kawhi-less Clippers team. It was ugly, no doubt, and their playoff history is underwhelming to say the least, but I found the injuries to Conley and Donovan Mitchell went very overlooked in that series. Mitchell was playing like a top ten player prior to that, I was blown away by his play against Memphis, and his improvement as a player and shooter, overall. If you are familiar with trying to come back to basketball from a bad ankle sprain, it’s not as easy as it looks; not everyone is Isiah in game 6 of the ‘88 finals. Utah has a top three home court advantage in the NBA and are dominant at home. I also like the D-Wade addition to the ownership group. Mitchell has some D-Wade in his game and having him as a mentor can only help his development. With Mitchell, Conley, Ingles, Bojan and Clarkson, this is the deepest collection of playmakers in the league. All five of those guys can make plays for themselves and others and knock down the three off the catch. I like the veteran additions of Rudy Gay and Paschall, both coming from great ball moving, defensive-focused systems in SA and GS and should fit in nicely playing D, rebounding, and stretching the floor. And, as usual, Rudy Gay controlling the game on Defense and in screen/roll game offensively is as important as it gets in the Regular season. Finally, I was very high on Jared Butler coming out of Baylor – if there are injuries to any of those top 5 playmakers, I think he can be a solid place holder with upside.
Philly Over 51
Controversial over here with Philly; the Simmons stuff is quite outrageous and difficult to get a read on. I do like how Morey and Philly have handled it, though. They took the leverage back by refusing to pay him, and Ben came crawling back to camp. How this plays out is tough to say, so I considered it a few different ways and tend to lean to the over in three of four scenarios. The most likely scenario is Ben realizes he has no other choice but to play ball and prove to the NBA he is still a young star, and once on the court, everyone forgets about all the drama and just balls – don’t forget how good he is in the regular season. Another is they get a decent trade package like CJ McCollum, who I would like paired with Embiid. Third scenario is he doesn’t play at all, and I honestly like this roster and coaching enough in the regular season, even without Simmons, to get to 52 wins. Last scenario is it’s a total disaster, the team is disconnected, chemistry is a mess, and they can’t find a trade. I am betting on the first three scenarios being more likely and expect Embiid to be play at an MVP-level, once again – he is so damn good on both ends of the floor, every night he plays. This is also a good number at 51, I have seen it at a lot of places at 53.5. (wrote this and made the pick before the recent Simmons developments)
Houston Under 26.5
Simple handicap: Houston seems to be handing the keys of the team to Green and Porter Jr., talented volume shooting offensive guards, but I am not sure how they fit together. If there was a prop on combined shot attempts for the two of them, hammer the over. I do like Green and Sengun’s talent as rookies, but rookies can’t be your best players in this league and keep you competitive over an 82-game season. Also, who plays defense for this team?
Minnesota Over 34.5
This team has been a mess for the last few years. Trades, coaching changes, management changes, new lottery picks, and covid: all factors disrupting their last couple seasons. KAT is maybe the one athlete in the world most affected by Covid, losing his mom and multiple other family members. His play/life has been disrupted so drastically for the last few years that having some structure and normalcy to this season must be good for him. He is an immensely talented player, he has everything a big could ask for, offensively, and is due to show that to the league, once again. He struggles defensively and I don’t see that ever changing, but the roster around him is improved. I really like Anthony Edwards and expect him to take a big second year jump. In general, I like players who were late starters to the game of basketball, raw talents but incredible athletes. Once they become pro players and have the sole focus of improving their games, they tend to make huge improvements (e.g., Embiid, Siakam, S Francis, Dirk, Amari etc.) On top of Edwards, I think their wings and guards are improved, and Beasley, Mclaughlin, Prince and Beverly add some defense and shooting. D-Russel is a bonus scorer and I hope he just stays out of the way and facilitates. Also, he would be a nice trade piece if they can find a deal. Led by KAT and Edwards, I expect Minnesota to be a play-in team and buzz around the 8-seed this year.
Phoenix Over 51.5
What makes Phoenix worse this year than last year? They won 51 games last year in a 72-game season. Besides CP3, they are a very young team that is only going to improve from the experience of a deep run to the NBA Finals. I would also argue that, considering the Kawhi and Murray injuries, and outside of Utah, the other top teams in the Western Conference are weaker this year. I do expect CP3 to take a step back from scoring, be more of a facilitator and coast a bit in the regular season, but I think that empowers Booker; I expect he has a huge year, and he is one of my MVP bets. Ultimately, I just don’t understand this number and like them to compete with Utah for the best record in the West this season.
Atlanta Under 47.5
This is a bit of a contrarian pick, there is a lot of ATL buzz off their playoff performance last season. I like their team but have some questions about consistency through a full season. Many of their best players are injury prone: Gallo, Collins, Capela never play full seasons and even the young guy’s, Reddish and Hunter, have been banged up often early in their careers. Additionally, there seems to be some overreaction to their playoff run. If Embiid doesn’t tear his MCL and Ben Simmons doesn’t melt down, I think Philly would have easily taken that series. Would we still be talking about Atlanta as a 48-win team if they lost in the second round 4-1? Last year their O/U had them as a .500 team, now we have them as a 14 win over .500 team? I think the middle of the eastern conference is better than it’s been in a long time, and I don’t have ATL six games better than Indy, Chicago, NY, etc. Inflated line here.
NBA Championship
Brooklyn is the heavy favorite for good reason, and I really think they will be the champs this year. I don’t care if Kyrie plays or not, this roster is much improved around KD and Harden. However, at +220 it is tough to take and lock up units pre-season, so going to pass for now. Will bet a couple Western Conference teams at longer odds.
Utah +1600 – read above on Utah over, I also think this could be the year they finally get over the playoff hump.
Denver +2000 – I bet Denver last year right after the Gordon trade. That bet got crushed by Murray’s injury, but I really like this team when healthy. If Murray is able to get back for half of the season, I think Denver could make a run and come out of the West.
MVP
My picks last year were Lebron 11-1 and Embiid 25-1. I got great closing line value on both bets, but injuries cost them.
Tough not go with one of the favorites here. Luka is primed for a big-time year but doesn’t have much value at 4.5-1. Durant, as well, the best player in the league on what is likely the best team in the league. Does he stay healthy and play enough minutes to win it? Not sure, so going to pass at 6-1. I do see some value in the next tier with Embid and Curry at 8-1; pick one of them and go for it. I see the most value, though, further down the list and I’m rolling with some longer shots this year.
Donovan Mitchell +4500 – Love this bet and got a great early number at 45-1. It has moved a lot since and now see it +3200-+2800 range, which I still like. Great value for the best player on what I think will be the best regular season team in the West, and possibly, the league. Since the bubble, his game has taken off, I expect that to continue this year and I love the DWade mentorship/influence.
Devon Booker +2000 – That playoff run is going to give Phoenix so much confidence, and they should be close to leading the league in scoring. I am predicting CP3 taking more games off and playing more of a facilitator role this year. I like Phoenix to compete for Western conference 1-seed and their best player to take another step. Good value at 20-1.
Long shot sprinkle Jimmy Butler +6500 – Miami has made some great offseason moves to improve the team. Do these moves help them in the regular season? I am not sure, but if they do, Miami has a shot at winning the eastern conference, and, if that’s the case, Butler would have to be in the MVP mix.
ROY
I like CADE to win it, but he’s such a heavy favorite I don’t want to lock up the units. My longer shot sprinkle would be Giddy at +3000: he is going to play a lot of minutes and will put up numbers, but not sure if it will be enough on one of the worst teams in the league.
Most Improved Player
OG +2800 - I bet OG last year, as well, and that seemed to be a year early. Going back to it this year at 28-1. He is going to be the focal point of the Raptors until Pascal gets back. He has said himself; he thinks he can be an all-star this year. I think so too.
Terrance Mann +10000 – I like this kid’s game and loved the way he stepped up in the playoffs when Kawhi went down last year. Kawhi is likely to miss most of the season, and, if the Clippers can stay in the mix, Terrance Mann will be a big reason why. 100-1 is ridiculous value.
Others in consideration: Tyler Herro +5000, RJ Barrett +3000
Pro Picks
Compared to the NFL there are not a lot of sharps or pros that give out free NBA picks especially pre-season futures but below are a few guys that are solid that did provide some pre-season pick content
@JonVonTobel Vsin
Over/Under win Totals
· Hornets Under 38.5
· Pistons Over 26.5
· Rockets Under 24.5
· T-Wolves Over 33.5
· Pelicans Over 38.5
· Knicks Under 4.2
Brandon Anderson at Action Network
· Celtics Over 45.5
· Trail Blazers Over 44.5
· Lakers Over 52.5
· Rockets Under 27.5
· Pelicans Under 39.5
· Bulls Under 42.5
Picks for Tonight
Brooklyn +2 - I make this game +1.5 so I don’t see a ton of line value, but simply I like this spot as I breath of fresh air game for Brooklyn. They can finally escape the offseason Kyrie drama for a couple hours and just hoop. There is also some revenge motivation from the playoff loss.
Lean Lakers -3, my power ratings make it closer to -5.5/-6 but their is just so much uncertainty with this roster I am going to stay away.
Power Ratings
1. Brooklyn +8.5
2. Utah +8
3. Milwaukee +7
4. Phoenix +7
5. LAL +6
6. Philly +4.5
7. Miami +4
8. Dallas +3.5
9. Denver +3
10. Atlanta +2.5
11. Boston +2.5
12. LAC +2
13. GS +2
14. Portland +1.5
15. Indiana +1
16. NY +1
17. Memphis +0.5
18. Chicago 0
19. Charlotte 0
20. Toronto -1
21. New Orleans -1.5
22. Minnesota -1.5
23. SAC -2
24. San Antonio -2
25. Washington -2.5
26. Cleveland -3
27. Detroit -3.5
28. Houston -5.5
29. Orlando -6
30. OKC -6.5