NBA Week 2
Fun first week of NBA basketball, it is great to have games on again. This is one of the best times of the year for sports with all the major sports leagues overlapping. So far, I am 9-7 on the year with NBA bets. I got off to a rough start losing on my first four picks, but since then, I have gone 9-3 and I feel like I’m starting to see it pretty well. Two of my losses have been on Raptors picks – I may have had some home team bias that I needed to get out of the system, their offense is struggling. If you want to follow my plays, I post all of them on the Action Network App here: https://myaction.app/4thandjord
Let’s get right into Power Ratings below and I will comment on a few of the biggest movers and add a couple other observations before getting into picks.
Power Ratings
1. Utah +8
2. Milwaukee +8
3. Brooklyn +7.5
4. Phoenix +6
5. Miami +5
6. Denver +4
7. Lakers +4
8. Philly +3.5
9. Atlanta +3
10. GS +3
11. Dallas +2.5
12. NY +2
13. Boston +2
14. Memphis +1.5
15. Charlotte +1.5
16. Chicago +1
17. LAC +1
18. Portland +0.5
19. Indiana +0
20. Washington -1
21. Toronto -1
22. Minnesota -1
23. Cleveland -1.5
24. SAC -2
25. San Antonio -2
26. New Orleans -3.5
27. Detroit -5
28. Houston -5.5
29. Orlando -6.5
30. OKC -7.5
Biggest movers in the Power Rankings after week 1:
Lakers down 2 points – I had concerns coming into the season with the build-out of this Lakers roster. Not a lot of shooting, bunch of old guys, and what does Russ do when Lebron has the ball and vice-versa? All those concerns were glaring issues through week one. The injuries to Horton-Tucker, Nunn and Ellington are significant, as they add shooting and youth. However, Lebron and AD both still look great. I do think they will get the team settled into roles and figure some things out as the season goes on, but right now, they are not one of the top teams in the league.
New Orleans down 2 points – I was not a fan of what David Griffin did in the offseason; the roster is confusing, and the team has no identity. They desperately miss Zion, but I am still not sure how this team will be with him. I over-ranked them coming into the season because I thought Zion was closer to a return.
Charlotte up 1.5 points – Lamelo Ball is damn good. He has improved from last season and continues to control the game offensively when he has the ball. He is a tough match-up for any guard with his length and quickness. He is shooting the ball better, also: 50% from three through four games. Miles Bridges seems to have also taken a major jump, averaging 25ppg in the first week. They are the number 1 scoring team in the league right now, they have, however, played multiple OT games, so take that with a grain of salt, but they should be near the top all year in scoring.
Cleveland up 1.5 points – Cleveland is giving me some believeland vibes through four games. I wasn’t sure what to make of this roster coming into the year. They had a bunch of guys I like, but I had no idea how they would fit together (so many bigs). The roster fit is still a work in progress, but getting Garland back seemed to have clarified some things, and that was a big time win in Denver. Mobley looks awesome through four games and is so versatile on both sides of the floor that he is more like an oversized swingman. Kevin Love also looks in shape and motivated, he has played solid through four games. Not ready to move these guys above an average team but very intrigued by this squad early in the season.
Don’t Overreact
Chicago is 4-0 and first in the East, off to their best start since 1996-97. They are definitely improved, winning games they should win is progress, and I really like the addition of Lonzo Ball running the point. Lonzo is great pushing the ball in transition with the pass and getting it to their playmaking wings in good positions to attack. He also gets guys a lot of easy buckets just off cutting and is shooting 43% from three. That said, everyone seems to want to anoint Chicago one of the best teams in the East already. Let’s settle down with that. They are currently ranked fifth in the NBA in Defense LOL – look at who they have played: Detroit twice, New Orleans, and Toronto. Let’s see them play a top 25 offense before calling this team a good defense. I have them to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
The middle of the Eastern Conference is going to be a fun battle. I think Milwaukee and Brooklyn have separated themselves as the top two teams, but I have been impressed with Miami’s start and would move them into the top tier as well. From there, the four seed down to the play-in ten seed, it should be a great battle all season. I have five points on my power ratings from Philly +3.5 (I may be too high on Philly) down to Cleveland -1.5, separating ten teams fighting for six spots.
My Picks
Boston -4 vs WSH – I make this game Boston -6 at the garden. Boston hasn’t played great to start the season and this line is reflecting that. Boston Garden home court is one of the top eight in the league, and is, to me, worth at least 3 points. Is Boston only one point better than Washington? I make them 3 points better. Tatum is back on track after two bad shooting games to start the year. Brown has been great in the games he’s played, and Schroder gives them a legit third scorer. Their defense has been questionable, they should be due to play better, but if they don’t, I think they can outscore Washington. Over 224 could be a solid play as well.
Cleveland +8 @ LAC – Clashing of styles in this game: team that likes to play big vs a team that plays small. Mobley’s versatility will be key to playing against these small Clippers lineups. Cleveland is healthy, coming off a big win in Denver, which should boost their confidence. Even if you give LA home court 4 points, I still make this game 6.5; just too many points.
Keep an eye on Lakers -6 @ OKC – Both teams on back-to-backs, this game should be 9.5. It opened at 9.5 and is now 6, that is all about Lebron and AD being listed as questionable. Lebron sat out last night, I expect him to play tonight. If he does, I am definitely taking -6. I am putting a half unit on it now at -6 and will keep an eye on the injury report pre-game.
Thursday Night – I have NY vs Chicago circled – I would like to play against Chicago here but let’s see what the line opens at.