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NFL Week 10
sharpsmithsports.substack.com

NFL Week 10

Jordan Smith
Nov 13, 2021
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Share this post
NFL Week 10
sharpsmithsports.substack.com

Concussion symptoms are back unfortunately so no write ups this week, was hoping to do a mid-season review. If I am feeling better next week I will include it then. Picks report and my picks are updated. Follow me on the Action Network App for all my picks. https://myaction.app/4thandjord

Tools and Resource

Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings

Their proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a context-specific league baseline to determine value over average.

NFL Power Rankings

The Athletic Distributed Power Rankings (*New for Week 7*)

PFF Power Rankings

NFL.com Power Rankings (updated for week 7)

Steve Fezzik NFL Power Rankings (updated for week 7)

Jord’s NFL Power Rankings (See below, updated for week 7)

QB Rankings (The most important position in Sports)

Chris Simms QB Rankings

I think Chris Simms is the best QB evaluator in the media and it’s not close, especially when evaluating QB prospects where he is not afraid to go against consensus. His record speaks for itself.

Mike Sando NFL Poll of QB Tiers

A League wide poll of the best QB’s by 50 NFL executives

NFL QBR (updated after week 6)

The best QB metric.

Other Tools

PFF O-line Rankings (need to pay for the week-to-week updates)

O-line is the second most important position group in football to me. Having a sense of O-line groups when making wagers can give you an edge.

Odds Checker Grid

Don’t forget to shop for the best numbers!

Action Network - Betting tickets vs money report

Action Network App is a great tool in general. This report especially will help you understand who the public teams are and who the pro teams are. For example: Team A in a given matchup has 70% of the tickets bet on them but only 35% of the money; public is on Team A, sharps (big money) are on Team B (Pros vs Joes).

Fantasy Life App Injury Notifications

A great resource that sweeps the internet for injury news and will notify you as the news is released.


Podcast Picks Report

Below is a breakdown of my favorite football podcasts that give out free picks ATS. I will track each podcast’s picks and adjust this list as we move through the season.

Pregame - The Dream Preview - RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, AJ Hoffman

In my opinion this is the best and sharpest sports betting podcast. Steve Fezzik is the only 2-time Westgate Super contest winner. He is great with derivatives, calculations behind line moves/juice and identifying bet and fade spots in the schedule. RJ Bell keeps Fez in check and is very sharp himself, a contrarian thinker on the NFL and always finding unique angles, AJ is a college expert and improving on NFL.

Super Contest picks - All three guys pick 5 games weighted from 5 star*, Best Bet (BB) down to 1 star. Then they come up with consensus top 5 picks for the contest (These 5 can change by Saturday when they make the picks depending on line moves, injuries etc.) Disagreements are automatic crossfire bets.

Contest picks: 3-2 Week 9, 20-22-1 Overall *Fezz 1-4 Week 9, 22-23 Overall*

  • Fezz BB 5* LAC -3 (RJ 2* agreement)

  • AJ BB 5* DET +8.5 (RJ 4* agreement)

  • RJ BB 5* LVR +2.5 (Fezz 4* agreement, AJ 1*)

  • Fezz 4* LVR +2.5

  • AJ 4* DEN -2.5 (crossfire fezz 3*)

  • RJ 4* DET +8.5

  • Fezz 3* PHI +2.5 (crossfire AJ 4*)

  • AJ 3* ATL +9.5

  • RJ 3* WFT +9.5

  • Fezz 2* NO +3

  • AJ 2* IND -10

  • RJ 2* LAC -3

  • Fezz 1* IND -10

  • AJ 1* LVR +2.5

  • RJ 1* SF +4

@kellyinvegas

Kelly, now with Barstool Bets, is very sharp and typically a contrarian better fading public sentiment and money. I think similarly so I like to keep an eye on her picks.

Kelly 2-1 Week 9, 24-16-3 Overall

  • BB Vikings +3.5

  • 49ers +3.5

  • Saints +2.5

  • Browns +2.5

The Favorites, Volume Network

Chad Millman, the CTO of the Action network, hosts this podcast with sharp pro better Simon Hunter. They do a 5-pick contest and make their final decision on the 5 on Sunday but Simon lets you know all his sides below.

0-5 Week 9 Contest Sides, 17-28 Overall

  • Cowboys -8.5

  • 49ers +4

  • Saints +3

  • WFT +9.5

  • Broncos -2.5

  • Raiders +2.5

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast

New podcast for me, just getting to know the hosts, Chris and Stuckey. Action network is a great resource, and the NFL Sunday 6 pack from Stuckey and Chris has been a great listen and profitable. They each pick 3 sides, weighted BB 1 to 3, one total, one teaser and one underdog ML.

Stuckey: 3-2 Week 9, 23-19-2 Overall

  • BB Panthers +10.5

  • Saints +3

  • Lions +9

  • Pats/Browns Under 45

  • 6 point Teaser: Seahawks +8.5/Cowboys -2.5

  • ML Dog Saints

Chris: 4-1 Week 9, 23-21 Overall

  • BB Seahawks +3.5

  • Browns +1.5

  • Vikings +3

  • Phi/Den Under 45

  • Teaser: Seahawks +9.5/Vikings +9

  • ML Dog Browns

Bet the Board - Todd Furnham and @PayneInsider

Payne is a pro and offers great insight, data and statistics on the NFL. A lot of his plays you need to pay for, but on this podcast, he will give some free best bets and talk you through his angles.

Payne: 1-0 Week 9, 5-4 Overall

  • Saints/Titans first half under 22

@adamchernoff

Adam Chernoff – 5-4 week 9 - 66-26 Overall

  • KC -2.5

  • Browns +2.5

  • ATL/DAL Over 53.5

  • Marquise Brown long rec over 23.5 yards

  • PHI/DEN Over 45

  • Jerry Jeudy over 53.5 rec yards

  • Jerry Jeudy over 4.5 receptions

Chris Simms Unbuttoned

Great QB evaluator and NFL talent evaluator, but relatively square when it comes to making picks ATS. His insight is worth listening to for picking up tidbits on players and teams to implement in your picks, but his picks themselves offer moderate value.

Chris: 1-2Week 9, 13-13-1 Overall

  • Lions/Steelers Under 42.5

  • Bucs -9.5

  • Raiders +2.5

Florio: 1-2 Week 9, 1-2 Overall

  • Cowboys -8

  • Rams -4

  • Jags +10


What I’m thinking and Who I’m picking

Quick recap of my plays last week: 3-6 with way too much riding on Rams to win by 2. If you were tailing hopefully you hedged with Titans moneyline.

Week 10 Picks

  • Teaser: Raiders 8.5/Browns 8.5

  • Seahawks +3.5

  • Titans/Saints first half Under 22.5

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