What up everyone! I am back after a bye week to heal up. Starting to feel much better but not quite 100% so no write-ups again for hopefully only one more week. Still lots of value in this report especially in the last few weeks. Kelly and Stucky continue to consistently pick winners. RJ and the crew have bounced back and caught fire with 5 straight winning weeks. Payne has hit his last 4 BB winners. Chernoff has cooled off a bit but still on a tear for the year over 65% and even Simon has got on a roll with 2 straight 4-1 weeks in the contest. I know this is the football post but I have caught fire in the NBA so keep a lookout for those Wednesday posts with my NBA picks. Thank you for subscribing and good luck this week! Reminder: follow my picks here https://myaction.app/4thandjord
Tools and Resource
Their proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a context-specific league baseline to determine value over average.
NFL Power Rankings
Jord’s NFL Power Rankings (See below)
QB Rankings (The most important position in Sports)
I think Chris Simms is the best QB evaluator in the media and it’s not close, especially when evaluating QB prospects where he is not afraid to go against consensus. His record speaks for itself.
A League wide poll of the best QB’s by 50 NFL executives
NFL QBR (updated after week 6)
The best QB metric.
PFF O-line Rankings (need to pay for the week-to-week updates)
O-line is the second most important position group in football to me. Having a sense of O-line groups when making wagers can give you an edge.
Don’t forget to shop for the best numbers!
Action Network App is a great tool in general. This report especially will help you understand who the public teams are and who the pro teams are. For example: Team A in a given matchup has 70% of the tickets bet on them but only 35% of the money; public is on Team A, sharps (big money) are on Team B (Pros vs Joes).
A great resource that sweeps the internet for injury news and will notify you as the news is released.
Podcast Picks Report
Below is a breakdown of my favorite football podcasts that give out free picks ATS. I will track each podcast’s picks and adjust this list as we move through the season.
In my opinion this is the best and sharpest sports betting podcast. Steve Fezzik is the only 2-time Westgate Super contest winner. He is great with derivatives, calculations behind line moves/juice and identifying bet and fade spots in the schedule. RJ Bell keeps Fez in check and is very sharp himself, a contrarian thinker on the NFL and always finding unique angles, AJ is a college expert and improving on NFL.
Super Contest picks - All three guys pick 5 games weighted from 5 star*, Best Bet (BB) down to 1 star. Then they come up with consensus top 5 picks for the contest (These 5 can change by Saturday when they make the picks depending on line moves, injuries etc.) Disagreements are automatic crossfire bets.
Contest picks: 3-2 Week 11, 27-25-1 Overall *Fezz 3-2 Week 11, 27-28 Overall*
Fezz BB 5* Indy +2.5
AJ BB 5* ATL -1
RJ BB 5* GB Pick
Follow RJ Bell twitter for full 5 contest picks Sunday Morning
Kelly, now with Barstool Bets, is very sharp and typically a contrarian better fading public sentiment and money. I think similarly so I like to keep an eye on her picks.
Kelly 2-1 Week 11, 27-18-3 Overall
BB Colts +3
Chad Millman, the CTO of the Action network, hosts this podcast with sharp pro better Simon Hunter. They do a 5-pick contest and make their final decision on the 5 on Sunday but Simon lets you know all his sides below.
4-1 Week 11, Contest Sides 25-30 Overall
New podcast for me, just getting to know the hosts, Chris and Stuckey. Action network is a great resource, and the NFL Sunday 6 pack from Stuckey and Chris has been a great listen and profitable. They each pick 3 sides, weighted BB 1 to 3, one total, one teaser and one underdog ML.
Stuckey: 3-2 Week 11, 29-23-2 Overall
BB Rams +1
Pats/Titans Under 44.5
Teaser: Vikings +9 Broncos +8.5
ML Dog Jags
Chris: 2-3 Week 11, 27-27 Overall
BB Steelers +4.5
Panthers Dolphins Under 42
Teaser: Broncos +8.5 Rams +7
ML Dog Pitt +160
Payne is a pro and offers great insight, data and statistics on the NFL. A lot of his plays you need to pay for, but on this podcast, he will give some free best bets and talk you through his angles.
Payne: 1-0 Week 11, 7-4 Overall
Panthers Dolphins 1H under 21
Adam Chernoff – 4-3 week 11 - 77-38 Overall
Tampa/Indy Over 52
Henderson Over 61.5 rush
Golloday over 49.5 rec yards over 3.5 rec
Great QB evaluator and NFL talent evaluator, but relatively square when it comes to making picks ATS. His insight is worth listening to for picking up tidbits on players and teams to implement in your picks, but his picks themselves offer moderate value.
Chris: 2-1 Week 11, 16-16-1 Overall
Florio: 2-1 Week 11, 17-15-1 Overall
What I’m thinking and Who I’m picking
Teaser: Broncos +8.5 Packers +8