NFL Week 7
Thank you for subscribing and reading! We are 1/3 of the way through the season, so let’s review who is making good picks on the pick report. Honestly, some disappointing results from a lot of these sharps, only a couple of them really performing up to expectation in Kelly and Stucky. That said, some of these guys have a great history of making profitable picks, so I expect a return to form over the next part of the season. I am also not having a great start at just under 50%. I am clearly influenced by a lot of these sharps, and when they don’t see it well it leaks into my decisions. Trust the process, though, and keep going! My silver lining is, at 9-5 on the year, teasers have been very profitable for me. Note: I will be removing Colin Cowherd’s picks going forward and replacing them with a fellow Canadian, Adam Chernoff (@adamchernoff), who is crushing NFL betting right now at 47-14, 77% on the year!
Pregame Dream Preview Group Contest – 11-18-1 37.9%
Fezz 16-14 53.33%
Kelly 17-12-2 58.6%
Simon and Chad Contest Picks 13-17 43.33%
Stucky 16-11-2 59.3%
Raybon 16-13 55.17%
Payne 3-3 50%
Colin 13-18 41.9%
Simms 10-8 55.56%
Florio 10-8 55.56%
Jordan 19-20 48.78%
Tools and Resources
Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings
Their proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a context-specific league baseline to determine value over average.
NFL Power Rankings
The Athletic Distributed Power Rankings (*New for Week 7*)
NFL.com Power Rankings (updated for week 7)
Steve Fezzik NFL Power Rankings (updated for week 7)
Jord’s NFL Power Rankings (See below, updated for week 7)
QB Rankings (The most important position in Sports)
I think Chris Simms is the best QB evaluator in the media and it’s not close, especially when evaluating QB prospects where he is not afraid to go against consensus. His record speaks for itself.
Mike Sando NFL Poll of QB Tiers
A League wide poll of the best QB’s by 50 NFL executives
NFL QBR (updated after week 6)
The best QB metric.
Other Tools
PFF O-line Rankings (need to pay for the week-to-week updates)
O-line is the second most important position group in football to me. Having a sense of O-line groups when making wagers can give you an edge.
Don’t forget to shop for the best numbers!
Action Network - Betting tickets vs money report
Action Network App is a great tool in general. This report especially will help you understand who the public teams are and who the pro teams are. For example: Team A in a given matchup has 70% of the tickets bet on them but only 35% of the money; public is on Team A, sharps (big money) are on Team B (Pros vs Joes).
Fantasy Life App Injury Notifications
A great resource that sweeps the internet for injury news and will notify you as the news is released.
Podcast Picks Report
Below is a breakdown of my favorite football podcasts that give out free picks ATS. I will track each podcast’s picks and adjust this list as we move through the season.
Pregame - The Dream Preview - RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, AJ Hoffman
In my opinion this is the best and sharpest sports betting podcast. Steve Fezzik is the only 2-time Westgate Super contest winner. He is great with derivatives, calculations behind line moves/juice and identifying bet and fade spots in the schedule. RJ Bell keeps Fez in check and is very sharp himself, a contrarian thinker on the NFL and always finding unique angles, AJ is a college expert and improving on NFL.
Super Contest picks - All three guys pick 5 games weighted from 5 star*, Best Bet (BB) down to 1 star. Then they come up with consensus top 5 picks for the contest (These 5 can change by Saturday when they make the picks depending on line moves, injuries etc.) Disagreements are automatic crossfire bets.
Contest picks: 2-3 Week 6, 11-18-1 Overall *** Fezz 2-3Week 6, 16-14 Overall***
Fezz BB 5* Eagles +3 (agreement AJ BB)
AJ BB 5* Eagles +3
RJ BB 5* WFT +8.5 (Crossfire AJ 4*)
Fezz 4* Texans +18.5
AJ 4* GB -8.5
RJ 4* Giants +3
Fez 3* Pats -7 (AJ 3* agreement)
AJ 3* Pats -7
RJ 3* Bengals +6.5 (AJ 1* agreement)
Fezz 2* Dolphins +2.5
AJ 2* KC -5.5 (Crossfire Fezz 1*)
Fezz 1* Titans +5.5
AJ 1* Bengals +6.5
Derivatives
LVR Under 26 Team Total
Cards Under 32 Team Total
NYJ Under 17.5 Team Total
Jets/Pats first half Under 21
Kelly, now with Barstool Bets, is very sharp and typically a contrarian better fading public sentiment and money. I think similarly so I like to keep an eye on her picks.
Kelly 2-1 Week 6, 17-12-3 Overall
BB Colts +4
Titans +4.5
Eagles +3
Falcons -2.5
Teaser: Broncos +8/Dolphins +8.5
Chad Millman, the CTO of the Action network, hosts this podcast with sharp pro better Simon Hunter. They do a 5-pick contest and make their final decision on the 5 on Sunday but Simon lets you know all his sides below.
3-2 Week 6 Contest Sides, 13-17 Overall
Broncos +3.5
Bengals +6.5
Titans +4.5
Dolphins +2.5
Eagles +3
Saints -4.5
The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast
New podcast for me, just getting to know the hosts, Chris and Stuckey. Action network is a great resource, and the NFL Sunday 6 pack from Stuckey and Chris has been a great listen and profitable. They each pick 3 sides, weighted BB 1 to 3, one total, one teaser and one underdog ML.
Stuckey: 3-2 Week 6, 16-11-2 Overall
BB Eagles +3
WFT +9.5
Chiefs -5.5
Panthers/Giants Under 43.5
6-point teaser: Pats -1/Dolphins +8.5
ML Dog Miami
Chris: 2-3 Week 6, 16-13 Overall
BB Panthers -3
SF -4
Falcons -2.5
Jets/Pats Under 42.5
6-point teaser: Pats -1/Ravens -.5
ML Dog Philly
Bet the Board - Todd Furnham and @PayneInsider
Payne is a pro and offers great insight, data and statistics on the NFL. A lot of his plays you need to pay for, but on this podcast, he will give some free best bets and talk you through his angles.
Payne: 0-1 Week 6, 3-3 Overall
Eagles +3
Adam Chernoff – 47-14 Overall
New England -6.5
Tampa -12.5
Saints/Seahawks Under 44.5
Panthers/Giants Under 44
Kansas City -4
Philadelphia +3.5
Miles Sanders Over 6.5 rush yards
Deandre Swift Over 37.5 receiving yards
Great QB evaluator and NFL talent evaluator, but relatively square when it comes to making picks ATS. His insight is worth listening to for picking up tidbits on players and teams to implement in your picks, but his picks themselves offer moderate value.
Chris: 1-2 Week 6, 10-8 Overall
Saints -4.5
Eagles +3
Bucs -12
Florio: 2-1 Week 6, 10-8 Overall
Packers -8
Rams -16
Over 42.5 Saints/Seahawks
What I’m thinking and Who I’m picking
Quick recap of my plays last week: 2-3 on here and 3-3 with the prop I posted on twitter. That Pats +4 was a terrible beat. I thought we had the cover locked up multiple times in that game only to give up a long TD on the 3rd possession of OT. Teasing Chargers may not be wise for the rest of the year – they are a high variance team given all the 3rd and 4th down success they rely on. Also, I have not had a great read on Baltimore since week 2, need to re-evaluate. Chiefs seem to have found their groove again in the second half of that WFT game and the under on Lions/Bengals covered easily. Let’s get back on track for Week 7.
Week 7 Picks
Teaser: Broncos +8/ Dolphins +8.5: With the Browns injuries, the wind, low total, and slow game pace, I liked the Broncos +8 teaser leg paired with the Dolphins +8.5 who I think should be favored at home vs Atlanta. They have been very disappointing this year, but Tua was solid last week, and they should keep it close or win outright.
Teaser: Packers -2/Dolphins +8.5: If you missed on the Denver leg of the tease, Packers is another solid option this week, playing in Lambo to win by 2 against WFT, arguably the most disappointing team in the league.
Chiefs -4: My numbers say Titans here, but I am going against it. I think the Chiefs have figured it out. Offensively, they are still dominating the league even with the bad turnovers – second in DVOA behind only Tampa while facing a much tougher schedule. The Titan’s secondary has cluster injuries and will be relying on some scrubs to cover the 2nd best offense in the league. I guess my concern would be a back door cover or FG win game given the KC defense, but they should get Chris Jones back this week, Titans are on a short week, they have a weak homefield and Chiefs have played Henry relatively tough in the past.
Panthers/Giants: Under 43.5: Tailing the sharps and agree with the premise: injuries on both teams’ best weapons, two defensive-minded teams, and a slow game pace. Low scoring battle.
Saints/Seahawks: Under 43.5 – Tailing Adam Chernoff with this one. He’s on fire.
TB -12 – I bet this early in the week with the simple handicap of the Bears, a running team, against the best run D in the league. Rookie QB, and Bears passing game is the 31st ranked in the league – can they really take advantage of the weakness of Tampa with their secondary injuries? I don’t think so, but no AB/Gronk for Tampa does have me concerned about Tampa covering 12 against a solid Bears D, so I have come off this slightly.
Leans
Eagles +3
Houston +18.5
Bengals +6.5
Updated Week 7 Power Rankings
1. Buffalo 6
2. Tampa 6
3. KC 5.5
4. Rams 5
5. Arizona 5
6. GB 4
7. Baltimore 4
8. Dallas 3.5
9. Chargers 3
10. Browns 3
11. SF 1.5
12. Tennessee 1.5
13. NO 1
14. Cincy 1
15. Minnesota 0.5
16. LV 0.5
17. New England 0
18. Den 0
19. Carolina -0.5
20. Colts -0.5
21. Pitt -1
22. Philly -1
23. Seattle -2.5
24. Chicago -2.5
25. Miami -3.5
26. Atlanta -3.5
27. WFT -3.5
28. Giants -4
29. Jax -6
30. Det -6.5
31. Jets -7
32. Houston -8.5