NFL WEEK 8
I’m on vacay this week so going to keep it short and sweet. Starting to heat up with the picks! So are some of the sharps. Let’s keep it rolling! Follow me on the Action Network App for all my picks. https://myaction.app/4thandjord
Tools and ResourceFootball Outsiders DVOA Rankings
Their proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a context-specific league baseline to determine value over average.
NFL Power Rankings
The Athletic Distributed Power Rankings (*New for Week 7*)
NFL.com Power Rankings (updated for week 7)
Steve Fezzik NFL Power Rankings (updated for week 7)
Jord’s NFL Power Rankings (See below, updated for week 7)
QB Rankings (The most important position in Sports)
I think Chris Simms is the best QB evaluator in the media and it’s not close, especially when evaluating QB prospects where he is not afraid to go against consensus. His record speaks for itself.
Mike Sando NFL Poll of QB Tiers
A League wide poll of the best QB’s by 50 NFL executives
NFL QBR (updated after week 6)
The best QB metric.
Other Tools
PFF O-line Rankings (need to pay for the week-to-week updates)
O-line is the second most important position group in football to me. Having a sense of O-line groups when making wagers can give you an edge.
Don’t forget to shop for the best numbers!
Action Network - Betting tickets vs money report
Action Network App is a great tool in general. This report especially will help you understand who the public teams are and who the pro teams are. For example: Team A in a given matchup has 70% of the tickets bet on them but only 35% of the money; public is on Team A, sharps (big money) are on Team B (Pros vs Joes).
Fantasy Life App Injury Notifications
A great resource that sweeps the internet for injury news and will notify you as the news is released.
Podcast Picks ReportBelow is a breakdown of my favorite football podcasts that give out free picks ATS. I will track each podcast’s picks and adjust this list as we move through the season.
Pregame - The Dream Preview - RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, AJ Hoffman
In my opinion this is the best and sharpest sports betting podcast. Steve Fezzik is the only 2-time Westgate Super contest winner. He is great with derivatives, calculations behind line moves/juice and identifying bet and fade spots in the schedule. RJ Bell keeps Fez in check and is very sharp himself, a contrarian thinker on the NFL and always finding unique angles, AJ is a college expert and improving on NFL.
Super Contest picks - All three guys pick 5 games weighted from 5 star*, Best Bet (BB) down to 1 star. Then they come up with consensus top 5 picks for the contest (These 5 can change by Saturday when they make the picks depending on line moves, injuries etc.) Disagreements are automatic crossfire bets.
Contest picks: 3-2 Week 7, 14-20-1 Overall *Fezz 3-2 Week 7, 19-16 Overall*
Fezz BB 5* Indy -1 (AJ 3* Agreement)
AJ BB 5* Det +3.5 (Fezz 3* Agreement)
RJ BB 5* SEA -3.5 (AJ Crossfire)
Fezz 4* NYJ +10.5
AJ 4* Dal -1.5 (Fezz Crossfire)
RJ 4* NO +6 (AJ 1* agreement)
RJ 3* DEN -3
AJ 3* Indy -1
Fezz 3* Det +3.5
Fezz 2* NE +6
RJ 1* NE +6
Fezz 1* Vikings +2
AJ 1* Jax +3.5
Kelly, now with Barstool Bets, is very sharp and typically a contrarian better fading public sentiment and money. I think similarly so I like to keep an eye on her picks.
Kelly 3-2 Week 7, 20-14-3 Overall
BB Saints +5.5
Jags +3.5
Pats +5
Chad Millman, the CTO of the Action network, hosts this podcast with sharp pro better Simon Hunter. They do a 5-pick contest and make their final decision on the 5 on Sunday but Simon lets you know all his sides below.
3-2 Week 7 Contest Sides, 16-19 Overall
Vikings +2.5
Colts -1
Chargers -4.5
Jags +3.5
Saints +6
Giants +10.5
The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast
New podcast for me, just getting to know the hosts, Chris and Stuckey. Action network is a great resource, and the NFL Sunday 6 pack from Stuckey and Chris has been a great listen and profitable. They each pick 3 sides, weighted BB 1 to 3, one total, one teaser and one underdog ML.
Stuckey: 2-3 Week 6, 18-14-2 Overall
BB Jets +10.5
Colts -1
Vikings +2
Bucs/Saints Under 50.5
6-point teaser: Vikings +8/Panthers +9
ML Dog Jags
Chris: 0-5 Week 6, 16-18 Overall
BB Pats +5.5
Steelers +3.5
Panthers +3
Colts/Titans Under 51
6-point teaser: Vikings +8/Cards-.5
ML Dog Saints
Bet the Board - Todd Furnham and @PayneInsider
Payne is a pro and offers great insight, data and statistics on the NFL. A lot of his plays you need to pay for, but on this podcast, he will give some free best bets and talk you through his angles.
Payne: 0-1 Week 7, 3-4 Overall
Steelers/Browns First half Under 21
Adam Chernoff – 7-3 week 7 - 54-17 Overall
Browns -3
Eagles -3
Indy -2
Ind/Ten over 50.5
Wash/Den over 44
Panthers +3
Jonathon Taylor Over 68.5 rush yards
Michael Carter Over 18.5 rec yards
Great QB evaluator and NFL talent evaluator, but relatively square when it comes to making picks ATS. His insight is worth listening to for picking up tidbits on players and teams to implement in your picks, but his picks themselves offer moderate value.
Chris: 1-2 Week 7, 11-10 Overall
Rams -16
Bengals -10.5
Pats +5
Florio: 1-2 Week 7, 11-10 Overall
Rams -16
Bengals -10.5
Bills -14
What I’m thinking and Who I’m pickingQuick recap of my plays last week: 5-1 on picks I gave out here! But I frustratingly added two more teasers once the Eagles line dropped to +2 and tweeted them out. Every sharp was on Eagles +3 so was very happy getting +8. Hurts killed me. Anyways solid week lets keep it rolling!
Week 8 Picks
Pats +5 - Great run Offense with the Pats vs bad run defense with Chargers. Pats history against Herbert last year 45-0. Another game in LA that will be like a home game for the road team.
Bucs -4 - Square side with the big road favorite here but I think this Bucs team is historically great. Saints D is good, but so was the Bears last week. Tom is playing all time right now and is getting Gronk back I don’t see any team slowing down the Bucs offense right now. So they must outscore them. I don’t think the Saints WR’s can take advantage of the Tampa secondary. This is a similar handicap and matchup to the Bears last week. Good running and short passing team plays right into the strength of the Tampa Defense. At -6 it was a pass but now down to -4 I’ll roll with Bucs.
WFT/Broncos Over 44 - Tailing Adam Chernoff. WFT O getting healthy and Denver D banged up in the middle of the field. This is a low total that should be closer to average.
Updated Week 7 Power Rankings
1. Tampa 7
2. Buffalo 6
3. Rams 5
4. GB 5
5. Arizona 5
6. KC 4
7. Baltimore 3.5
8. Dallas 3.5
9. Chargers 3
10. Browns 3
11. Cincy 2
12. Tennessee 2
13. LV 1.5
14. NO 1
15. New England 1
16. Colts +1
17. Minnesota 0.5
18. SF 0.5
19. Den 0
20. Carolina -1
21. Pitt -1
22. Philly -2
23. Seattle -3
24. Atlanta -3
25. Giants -3
26. Chicago -3.5
27. Miami -4
28. WFT -4
29. Jax -6
30. Det -6.5
31. Jets - 9
32. Houston -9