NFL Week 9
Apologies for the late post. Concussion symptoms are back unfortunately so no write ups this week, just picks. Follow me on the Action Network App for all my picks. https://myaction.app/4thandjord
Tools and Resource
Their proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a context-specific league baseline to determine value over average.
NFL Power Rankings
The Athletic Distributed Power Rankings (*New for Week 7*)
NFL.com Power Rankings (updated for week 7)
Steve Fezzik NFL Power Rankings (updated for week 7)
Jord’s NFL Power Rankings (See below, updated for week 7)
QB Rankings (The most important position in Sports)
I think Chris Simms is the best QB evaluator in the media and it’s not close, especially when evaluating QB prospects where he is not afraid to go against consensus. His record speaks for itself.
A League wide poll of the best QB’s by 50 NFL executives
NFL QBR (updated after week 6)
The best QB metric.
PFF O-line Rankings (need to pay for the week-to-week updates)
O-line is the second most important position group in football to me. Having a sense of O-line groups when making wagers can give you an edge.
Don’t forget to shop for the best numbers!
Action Network App is a great tool in general. This report especially will help you understand who the public teams are and who the pro teams are. For example: Team A in a given matchup has 70% of the tickets bet on them but only 35% of the money; public is on Team A, sharps (big money) are on Team B (Pros vs Joes).
A great resource that sweeps the internet for injury news and will notify you as the news is released.
Podcast Picks Report
Below is a breakdown of my favorite football podcasts that give out free picks ATS. I will track each podcast’s picks and adjust this list as we move through the season.
In my opinion this is the best and sharpest sports betting podcast. Steve Fezzik is the only 2-time Westgate Super contest winner. He is great with derivatives, calculations behind line moves/juice and identifying bet and fade spots in the schedule. RJ Bell keeps Fez in check and is very sharp himself, a contrarian thinker on the NFL and always finding unique angles, AJ is a college expert and improving on NFL.
Super Contest picks - All three guys pick 5 games weighted from 5 star*, Best Bet (BB) down to 1 star. Then they come up with consensus top 5 picks for the contest (These 5 can change by Saturday when they make the picks depending on line moves, injuries etc.) Disagreements are automatic crossfire bets.
Contest picks: 3-2 Week 8, 17-22-1 Overall *Fezz 2-3 Week 8, 21-19 Overall*
Fezz BB 5* SF +1.5 (AJ 4* Agreement)
AJ BB 5* BAL -6 (Fezz 3* Agreement)
Fezz 4* KC -7
AJ 4* SF +1.5
Fezz 3* BAL -6
AJ 3* Rams -7.5 (Fezz 2* agreement)
Fezz 2* Rams -7.5
AJ 2* NE -3.5
Fezz 1* +2.5
AJ 1* -2.5
(RJ was sick)
Kelly, now with Barstool Bets, is very sharp and typically a contrarian better fading public sentiment and money. I think similarly so I like to keep an eye on her picks.
Kelly 2-1 Week 8, 22-15-3 Overall
BB Panthers +4/ML
Chad Millman, the CTO of the Action network, hosts this podcast with sharp pro better Simon Hunter. They do a 5-pick contest and make their final decision on the 5 on Sunday but Simon lets you know all his sides below.
1-4 Week 8 Contest Sides, 17-23 Overall
New podcast for me, just getting to know the hosts, Chris and Stuckey. Action network is a great resource, and the NFL Sunday 6 pack from Stuckey and Chris has been a great listen and profitable. They each pick 3 sides, weighted BB 1 to 3, one total, one teaser and one underdog ML.
Stuckey: 2-3 Week 8, 20-17-2 Overall
BB SF -1
Ravens/Vikings Over 49.5
6-point teaser: Browns +8.5/Chiefs -1.5
ML Dog Giants
Chris: 3-2 Week 6, 19-20 Overall
BB Falcons +6.5
Pats/Panthers Under 41.5
6-point teaser: Chiefs -1.5/Rams -1.5
ML Dog Browns
Payne is a pro and offers great insight, data and statistics on the NFL. A lot of his plays you need to pay for, but on this podcast, he will give some free best bets and talk you through his angles.
Payne: 1-0 Week 8, 4-4 Overall
Pats/Panthers 1st half under 21
Adam Chernoff – 5-3 week 8 - 59-20 Overall
New Orleans Falcons Under 44
Carolina New England Under 43
Cleveland Cincy Over 46
Michael Carter Over 27.5
D Henderson over 70.5
Great QB evaluator and NFL talent evaluator, but relatively square when it comes to making picks ATS. His insight is worth listening to for picking up tidbits on players and teams to implement in your picks, but his picks themselves offer moderate value.
Chris: 1-1-1 Week 8, 12-11-1 Overall
Florio: 1-1-1 Week 8, 1-1-1 Overall
What I’m thinking and Who I’m picking
Quick recap of my plays last week: 3-2 (27-25 overall)
Week 9 Picks
6 Point Teaser: Rams -1.5/SF +8.5 (bet this early)
6 Point Teaser Round Robin: CLE+8.5/RAMS-1.5/KC-1.5 (each team with each other, 3 Bets)