Week 4

Thank you for subscribing and reading! I appreciate the feedback so far especially on my picks! Note: I am starting to trim down the pod report picks and will keep it more precise going forward. That said, some of these sharps are off to great starts on the year. Kelly is 11-4-2 on the year, Fezz is 10-5 in the contest, Chris Raybon is 11-3 with the weekly 6 pack and even Chris Simms is 7-2 on best bets. There is value here every week whether you follow my picks or some of the other pros.

Storylines, Trends and Big Questions

Brady vs Belichick – Oh, baby! NFL is giving us a treat with this game. Brady coming back to New England with a chance to set the all-time passing record, but could Belichick ruin the party? This game opened at -5.5 and it is now all the way up to -7 with 95% of the tickets on the Bucs.

Rookie QB’s Yikes - 2-10 ATS and 1-11 straight up with the only win coming from Mac Jones vs fellow rookie Zach Wilson. It’s been really ugly, but we should see some improvements. I think a sprinkle on one of these starting QB’s for rookie of the year at this point is a good buy-low opportunity.

Primetime Overs – Primetime overs continue to crush and are now 8-2 on the year. Keep an eye on the books to make a correction.

Week 4 Trends - Winless teams in week 4 go under the game total 83% of the time and 11-1 in the last 4 years (winless teams: Lions, Jets, Colts, Giants).

NFC West Showdowns - All 4 NFC West teams face off against each other this week in what should be some great, closely contested games.

Tools and Resources

Football Outsiders DVOA Rankings

Their proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a context-specific league baseline to determine value over average.

NFL Power Rankings

PFF Power Rankings

NFL.com Power Rankings (updated for week 4)

Steve Fezzik NFL Power Rankings (updated for week 4)

Jord’s NFL Power Rankings (See below, updated for week 4)

QB Rankings (The most important position in Sports)

Chris Simms QB Rankings

I think Chris Simms is the best QB evaluator in the media and it’s not close, especially when evaluating QB prospects where he is not afraid to go against consensus. His record speaks for itself.

Mike Sando NFL Poll of QB Tiers

A League wide poll of the best QB’s by 50 NFL executives

NFL QBR

The best QB metric.

Other Tools

PFF O-line Rankings (need to pay for the week-to-week updates)

O-line is the second most important position group in football to me. Having a sense of O-line groups when making wagers can give you an edge.

Odds Checker Grid

Don’t forget to shop for the best numbers!

Action Network - Betting tickets vs money report

Action Network App is a great tool in general. This report especially will help you understand who the public teams are and who the pro teams are. For example: Team A in a given matchup has 70% of the tickets bet on them but only 35% of the money; public is on Team A, sharps (big money) are on Team B (Pros vs Joes).

Fantasy Life App Injury Notifications

A great resource that sweeps the internet for injury news and will notify you as the news is released.


Podcast Picks Report

Below is a breakdown of my favorite football podcasts that give out free picks ATS. I think you can separate these into 3 different categories: the pro betters/analysts, the tape evaluators (scouts/ former players), and the media opinion-givers. I will track all the picks and adjust this list as we move through the season. Note: Longshot Money line picks will not be counted in pick records.

Pregame - The Dream Preview - RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, AJ Hoffman

In my opinion this is the best and sharpest sports betting podcast. Steve Fezzik is the only 2-time Westgate Super contest winner. He is great with derivatives, calculations behind line moves/juice and identifying bet and fade spots in the schedule. RJ Bell keeps Fez in check and is very sharp himself, a contrarian thinker on the NFL and always finding unique angles, AJ is a college expert and improving on NFL.

Super Contest picks - All three guys pick 5 games weighted 5 star* Best Bet (BB) down to 1 star. Then they come up with a consensus top 5 picks for the contest (These 5 can change by Saturday when they make the picks depending on line moves, injuries etc.) Disagreements are automatic crossfire bets.

Contest picks: 1-4 Week 3, 5-9-1 Overall *** Fezz 5-0 Week 3, 10-5 Overall***

  • Fezz BB 5* Jets +7 (AJ Cross Fire)

  • AJ BB 5* Rams -4.5 (RJ 1* agreement)

  • RJ BB 5* Vikings +2

  • Fezz 4* Giants +7.5

  • AJ 4* Bucs -6.5 (Fezz crossfire)

  • RJ 4* Raiders +3.5

  • Fezz 3* Panthers +4.5 (AJ crossfire)

  • AJ 3* Ravens +1

  • RJ 3* Lions +3

  • Fezz 2* Texans +16.5

  • AJ 2* Seahawks +3

  • RJ 2* Eagles +7

  • Fezz 1* Raiders +3.5

  • RJ 1* Rams -4.5

Derivatives

Warren is super sharp and especially good with the models on game totals. You have to pay for most of his picks, but you can pick up his leans from listening to his pods. Some of the other guys, especially, Mark Derosa, another pro, are sharp as well.

Warren: 6-0 Week 3, 7-5 Overall

Derosa: 6-4 Overall

  • Texans +17

  • Raiders +3.5

@kellyinvegas

Kelly, now with Barstool Bets, is very sharp and typically a contrarian better fading public sentiment and money. I think similarly so I like to keep an eye on her picks.

Kelly 4-0-2 Week 3, 11-4-2 Overall

  • BB Panthers +4.5

  • Vikings +2

  • Steelers +6.5

Teaser Legs

  • Ravens +7.5

  • Vikings +8

  • Lions +8.5

  • Seahawks +8.5

  • Saints -2

  • Colts +8

  • Falcons +7.5

The Favorites, Volume Network

Chad Millman, the CTO of the Action network hosts this podcast with sharp pro better Simon Hunter. They do a 5-pick contest and make their final decision on the 5 on Sunday but Simon lets you know all his sides below.

3-2 Week 3 Contest Sides, 7-8 Overall

  • Panthers +4.5*

  • Jets +7.5 *

  • Vikings +2 *

  • Broncos +1*

  • Chargers -3

  • Giants +7.5

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast

New podcast for me, just getting to know the hosts, Chris and Stuckey. Action network is a great resource, and the NFL Sunday 6 pack from Stuckey and Chris as been a great listen and profitable. They each pick 3 sides, weighted BB 1 to 3, one total, one teaser and one underdog ML.

Stuckey: 3-2 Week 3, 8-6 Overall

  • BB Jets +7.5

  • Pitt +6.5

  • Giants +7.5

  • GB/Pitt first half Under 23

  • 6-point teaser: Vikings +7.5/Colts +8

  • Pats ML dog +225

Chris: 5-0 Week 3, 11-3 Overall

  • BB Ravens +1

  • Seahawks +3

  • Vikings +1.5

  • Jets/Titans Under 44

  • 6-point teaser: Cincy +1.5/Titans -1.5

  • Giants +280

Bet the Board - Todd Furnham and @PayneInsider

Payne is a pro and offers great insight, data and statistics on the NFL. A lot of his plays you need to pay for but on this podcast, he will give some free best bets and talk you through his angles.

Payne: 1-0 Week 3, 2-1 Overall

  • WFT -1

The Herd Blazing 5

Colin is surprisingly sharp with his blazing 5 and is now getting advice from Chad Milliman from Action on his weekly picks.

Colin: 2-3 Week 3, 6-9 Overall

  • Dallas -4.5

  • Miami -2

  • Jets +7

  • Giants +7

  • Broncos +1

The Bill Simmons Podcast

Bill is one of the pioneers of podcasting and an entertaining media personality. He is more of an NBA specialist but does two solid shows on NFL betting: Guess the lines with Cousin Sal every Sunday night and Million Dollar picks with Peter Schrager every Thursday. Bill can be sharp and square but is entertaining, and Schrags offers some relevant inside info.

BS: 2-2 Week 3, 6-7 Overall

  • 6 point teaser: Chiefs -1/Rams +1.5

  • 6 point teaser: Chiefs -1/Bucs -1 (Pats +7 middle)

  • Seahawks +3

  • Dolphins -1.5

  • Underdog ML parlay Steelers/Raiders +693

Chris Simms Unbuttoned

Great QB evaluator and NFL talent evaluator, but relatively square when it comes to making picks ATS. His insight is worth listening to for picking up tidbits on players and teams to implement in your picks, but his picks themselves offer moderate value.

Chris: 3-0 Week 3, 7-2 Overall

  • Titans -7

  • Rams -4.5

  • Chiefs -7

Florio: 1-2 Week 3, 4-5 Overall

  • Chiefs -7

  • Rams -4.5

  • Packers -6.5


What I’m thinking and Who I’m picking

Quick recap of my plays last week: 4-3 on picks I gave out, another winning week, and 3-0 on teasers, let’s keep it going. Nailed the Browns/Bears read of Justin Fields struggles, but missed on SF, NYG and Colts. GB had a great game-plan with the RPO’s and quick throwing game, which neutralized SF Defensive front and got them out-in-front early (helped by some PI calls). SF playing from behind never seemed to get in rhythm with the run game and Shanahan play calling. Then Rogers did what Rogers does to win it. That Giants game was the most Giants game ever; hamstrings, fumbles, drops, play calling, O-line, all leading up to a crunch-time loss.

Week 4 Picks

I am 4-0 with teasers on the year and there are lots of teaser lines again this week, so let’s keep it rolling (although we are probably due for a big-time upset). Remember, I stick firmly to the basic strategy “Wong Teaser” rule of only teasing teams through the key numbers of 3-7 and shopping for -110 making it a positive EV bet. If you don’t do that, the math says you are better off just laying the vig on the single bet moneyline. I always lean to teasing games with lower totals. The lower the total of the game, typically the less variance and higher likelihood of covering the line six points in your direction.

6-Point Advantage Teaser Round Robin

  • Bengals -1.5/Saints -1.5

  • Chiefs -1.5/Saints -1.5

  • Bengals -1.5/Vikings +8.5

  • Lions +8.5/Falcons +8

  • Vikings +8/Lions +8.5

  • Seahawks +8.5/Colts +8.5

  • Broncos +1 - With the elevation change, Denver’s home field is the best in the league early in the year. Dating back to the preseason, this will be Baltimore’s 5th road game in six weeks. Additionally, I am still not very impressed with the Baltimore offense. The O-line is shaky and banged up and it leaves it up to Lamar to work magic with limited weapons at the end of every game. Baltimore will get some key players back this game on defense but are still pretty banged up on that side of the ball. Denver has some key injuries with the WRs but still have playmakers in Fant, Sutton, Patrick and both RBs. Denver’s defense is really good, and Fangio is a great defensive game planner. I like getting them as a slight underdog at home, as I make this game Denver -1 in my model. Sidenote: Teddy Covers has his nickname for a reason.

  • Vikings +2 - Vikings could very easily be 3-0 and Cousins has been solid all year. Zimmer and Cousins are great in the 1pm EST time slot and cover over 60% of the time. Cook should be back as well. The Browns domination last week was more about Fields and the Bears than the Browns so this line is slightly inflated. I like the Browns a fair bit as a team for the year but like this spot for Vikings.

  • Giants/Saints First half under 21.5 - in agreement and tailing Fezz and RJ with this play.

In consideration:

  • Typically, I wouldn’t do this, but I do lean to the Giants with the points and the WFT -1. Since I have the opposite side of those two games in my teasers above, there is an opportunity to try and middle these games or hedge. So, I am considering a half-unit bet on WTF -1 and Giants +7.

  • Steelers +6.5 - This is the ultimate Tomlin game. The Steelers are an amazing underdog team and terrible favorite. He is able to get the team up to play in moments when nobody expects them to perform. This is a classic GB coming off a huge win where they looked great and Steelers coming off a terrible loss where they looked horrible. The line is inflated. Lean Steelers.

  • Jets - I liked it at +7.5 when it opened, but as I am writing this it’s at +6 and the value is gone. I will likely still add this to my contest picks and may sprinkle the moneyline but can’t give it out at +6 even with the Titans injuries.

  • Pats +7.5 - Keeping an eye on this line and expect it to go over 7. With 95% of the tickets on the Bucs, this would be the classic pros vs joes game that covers. Also, have to think Belichick can keep it close against his QB of 18 years.

Updated Week 4 Power Rankings

1.        Tampa 6

2.        Kansas City 5.5

3.        Buffalo 5.5

4.        LA Rams 5

5.        San Francisco 3.5

6.        Cleveland 3.5

7.        GB 3.5

8.        Arizona 2

9.        Seattle 2

10.     Baltimore 2

11.     LAC 2

12.     Den 1.5

13.     New Orleans 1.5

14.     Dallas 1.5

15.     Tennessee 1

16.     New England 1

17.     LV 1

18.     Minnesota 0.5

19.     Carolina 0

20.     Miami 0

21.     Cincy -1

22.     Pittsburgh -1

23.     Colts -1.5

24.     WFT -1.5

25.     Philly -2.5

26.     Atlanta -3

27.     Giants -3.5

28.     Chicago -4

29.     Detroit -5

30.     NYJ -7

31.     JAX -7

32.     Houston -8