Thank you for subscribing and reading! I apologize, this will be a brief write up this week. I am dealing with a concussion, which has inhibited my ability to follow my usual routine. There will still be the picks report, updated power rankings and my picks at the bottom. Good luck!
Tools and Resources
Their proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a context-specific league baseline to determine value over average.
NFL Power Rankings
NFL.com Power Rankings (updated for week 3)
Steve Fezzik NFL Power Rankings (updated for week 3)
Jord’s NFL Power Rankings (See below, updated for week 3)
QB Rankings (The most important position in Sports)
I think Chris Simms is the best QB evaluator in the media and it’s not close, especially when evaluating QB prospects where he is not afraid to go against consensus. His record speaks for itself.
A League wide poll of the best QB’s by 50 NFL executives
NFL QBR (updated after week 2)
The best QB metric.
PFF O-line Rankings (need to pay for the week-to-week updates)
O-line is the second most important position group in football to me. Having a sense of O-line groups when making wagers can give you an edge.
Don’t forget to shop for the best numbers!
Action Network App is a great tool in general. This report especially will help you understand who the public teams are and who the pro teams are. For example: Team A in a given matchup has 70% of the tickets bet on them but only 35% of the money; public is on Team A, sharps (big money) are on Team B (Pros vs Joes).
A great resource that sweeps the internet for injury news and will notify you as the news is released.
Podcast Picks Report
Below is a breakdown of my favorite football podcasts that give out free picks ATS. I will track each podcast’s picks and adjust this list as we move through the season.
In my opinion this is the best and sharpest sports betting podcast. Steve Fezzik is the only 2-time Westgate Super contest winner. He is great with derivatives, calculations behind line moves/juice and identifying bet and fade spots in the schedule. RJ Bell keeps Fez in check and is very sharp himself, a contrarian thinker on the NFL and always finding unique angles, AJ is a college expert and improving on NFL.
Super Contest picks - All three guys pick 5 games weighted from 5 star*, Best Bet (BB) down to 1 star. Then they come up with consensus top 5 picks for the contest (These 5 can change by Saturday when they make the picks depending on line moves, injuries etc.) Disagreements are automatic crossfire bets.
Contest picks: 1-4 Week 5, 9-15-1 Overall *** Fezz 1-4 Week 5, 14-11 Overall***
Fezz BB 5* NE +3.5 (AJ 3* Crossfire)
AJ BB 5* GB -4.5
RJ BB 5* CAR +1.5 (3* fezz agreement)
Fezz 4* CLE -3
AJ 4* LAC +3
RJ 4* HOU +10 (AJ 1* agreement)
Fezz 3* GB -4.5
AJ 3* DAL -3.5
RJ 3* JAX +3.5
Fezz 2* NYG +9.5
Warren is super sharp and especially good with the models on game totals. You have to pay for most of his picks, but you can pick up his leans from listening to his pods. Some of the other guys, especially, Mark Derosa, another pro, are sharp as well.
Kelly, now with Barstool Bets, is very sharp and typically a contrarian better fading public sentiment and money. I think similarly so I like to keep an eye on her picks.
Kelly 2-3-1 Week 5, 15-11-3 Overall
BB Seattle +5.5
Chad Millman, the CTO of the Action network, hosts this podcast with sharp pro better Simon Hunter. They do a 5-pick contest and make their final decision on the 5 on Sunday but Simon lets you know all his sides below.
1-4 Week 5 Contest Sides, 10-15 Overall
New podcast for me, just getting to know the hosts, Chris and Stuckey. Action network is a great resource, and the NFL Sunday 6 pack from Stuckey and Chris has been a great listen and profitable. They each pick 3 sides, weighted BB 1 to 3, one total, one teaser and one underdog ML.
Stuckey: 2-1-2 Week 5, 13-9-2 Overall
BB Browns -3
Bengals/Lions Under 47.5
6-point teaser: No good options - Colts Raiders
ML Dog Jags
Chris: 1-4 Week 5, 14-10 Overall
BB Pitt -4
Vikings Panthers Under 46
6-point teaser: Tampa/KC
ML Dog Detroit
Payne is a pro and offers great insight, data and statistics on the NFL. A lot of his plays you need to pay for, but on this podcast, he will give some free best bets and talk you through his angles.
Payne: 0-1 Week 5, 3-2 Overall
Colin is surprisingly sharp with his blazing 5 and is now getting advice from Chad Milliman from Action on his weekly picks.
Colin: 3-3 Week 5, 12-14 Overall
Great QB evaluator and NFL talent evaluator, but relatively square when it comes to making picks ATS. His insight is worth listening to for picking up tidbits on players and teams to implement in your picks, but his picks themselves offer moderate value.
Chris: 1-2 Week 5, 9-6 Overall
Florio: 2-1 Week 5, 8-7 Overall
What I’m thinking and Who I’m picking
Quick recap of my plays last week: 2-2 on the picks I gave out here, but I added a 3rd teaser on Sunday (Cincy/Pats) once the lines moved enough. I finished 3-0 on Teasers bringing me to 9-4 on the year. I missed on the side picks, although I would make that 49ers bet every time – they out played Arizona and dominated the line of scrimmage. The Shanahan/Trey Lance combo let us down big time with not being able to convert on 4th and short in the red zone. That Miami defense was a total flop and Tom lit them up, mis-read.
Week 6 Picks
Teaser: Chargers +8.5/Panthers +8.5: Would not be surprised if both these teams win outright. I lean in each direction at +2.5 but getting them down to +8.5 through the 3 and 7 is great value. Carolina is in a great bounce back spot after a brutal loss. I expect a close, low scoring game between these two teams. Both defensive lines should impact the game. Some bad Darnold turnovers would be my only high variance concern. Baltimore is on another short week and still banged up. Indy (Carson Wentz) just lit up and exposed that defense, Herbert should be able to do the same. I expect Stayley, one of the best defensive minds in the game, to come up with something to marginally slow down Lamar. This should be a fun one.
Pats +4: Simply selling high on Dallas and buying low on the Pats. I make this game close to a pick-em in Foxburogh. Dallas offense is great, the O-line has been dominant, but I am still not sold completely on the defense. They have been making plays and turning people over but that tends to correct itself over time. I expect Mac to have time to throw and the offense to score enough to keep this close and expect Bill to game plan a defense to slow down Dak and the cowboys. Keep an eye on the injury report for the Pats O-line, if it is as bad as last week, I would likely come off this.
Chiefs -6.5: I realize this is the square side, most pros will be on the home dog, but I think KC has become cheap. I like this as a buy low opportunity. Coming off an embarrassing loss to their AFC rival on SNF, I expect a big-time bounce back from Mahommes and a KC offense that has continued to make uncharacteristic mistakes. WFT defense has really struggled and now are going to face the most dynamic offense in the league, which is pissed off and needs a win. KC defense is not good, and the back door cover is always open, but Heneike hasn’t been good enough to have me concerned, and the injuries to WFT O-line and weapons continue to pile up.
Browns -3: In agreement and tailing the sharps with this one. The Browns are built somewhat similar to the 49ers upfront on both sides of the ball. I expect the Browns defensive line to cause similar havoc to the 49ers last week. Kyler is banged up with a shoulder injury and last year struggled when not fully healthy. There are also high winds forecasted during this game, which would be in favor of the Browns run game against a 31st ranking DVOA Zona run defense.
Lions/Bengals Under 47.5 - There is no denying how hard the Lions are playing for this coaching staff right now. I lean Lions +3.5 here as well but the injuries on offense (on O-line and WR) are keeping me off it. So I like the under instead. Cincy Defense is better than expected, 7th in Defensive DVOA and especially strong against the run, the Lions best part of there offense. Both teams play pace is near the bottom of the league. Nobody will be in a rush to win this game. I expect Cincy D to keep the Lions offense in check and the hard playing Lions defense at home with a solid D-line to disrupt Burrow enough to keep this total under.
Updated Week 5 Power Rankings
1. Buffalo 6
2. Tampa 5.5
3. LA Rams 4.5
4. KC 4.5
5. Cleveland 4
6. Arizona 4
7. GB 3.5
8. LAC 3.5
9. Baltimore 3
10. Dallas 3
11. SF 1.5
12. NO 1
13. Minnesota 0.5
14. Tennessee 0.5
15. New England 0.5
16. Den 0
17. Cincy 0
18. Carolina -0.5
19. LV -0.5
20. Colts -1
21. Pitt -1
22. Philly -2
23. WFT -2.5
24. Seattle -2.5
25. Chicago -2.5
26. Miami -3
27. Giants -3.5
28. Atlanta -3.5
29. Det -6
30. NYJ -7
31. JAX -7
32. Houston -8.5